Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Sugar gallops nearly 4 pct, cocoa at 1-
* Trade focused on Ivorian cocoa export outlook
* Sugar dealers talk of increase in physical enquiries
* Arabicas lifted by tight supplies of high-quality beans
(Recasts, updates prices; adds analyst comments, second byline, dateline, previously LONDON)
By Marcy Nicholson and Sarah McFarlane
NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures soared nearly 4 percent to close higher on Wednesday, taking back its losses from the past two days, while U.S. cocoa settled at its highest level in more than a year and arabica coffee flirted with a 13-3/4-year high.
The macroeconomic picture helped lift the softs complex, attracting fund and investor buying after the Bank of England suggested there is a good chance interest rates will rise in two months, rather than earlier. Oil prices helped lift the commodity complex as they surged after Israel's government said Iranian warships planned to traverse the Suez Canal.
The most-active May raw sugar contract on ICE surged 1.01 cents, or 3.6 percent, to finish at 29.22 cents per lb, while London May white sugar closed up $23.40 at $748.70 per tonne.
"You have some support from commercials as well, probably picking up on the dip we have seen," said Rodrigo Costa, vice-president of Institutional Sales for Newedge USA.
"Technically the market is triggering some levels where you see specs coming back to buy it."
The global sugar market has been supported by tight supplies due to adverse weather in key producers, and resilient demand.
The raws recently corrected down about 16 percent from 30-year highs at 33.11 cents per lb hit at the beginning of the month, basis second position, as top grower Brazil's large harvest expected in March grew nearer.
Dealers said the latest sell-off in sugar futures had triggered physical enquiries, and this buying interest was supporting futures.
Barclays Capital said in a market note, "We remain positive on sugar prices, expecting a (global) deficit in 2010/11 of 0.3 million tonnes."
IVORIAN UNCERTAINTIES DRAG ON
U.S. cocoa futures corrected higher and closed at the highest level in more than a year, as continued concerns about supplies lifted prices due to the export ban in top grower Ivory Coast and the country's ongoing political crisis.
ICE benchmark May cocoa futures rose $53, or 1.6 percent, to close at $3,421 per tonne, the highest settlement for the second position since Jan. 25, 2010. The lightly traded March contract closed at a $42 premium to May for the second day, the highest level since March 2009.
"The underlying strength in cocoa prices will remain as long as there's unrest in Ivory Coast," a London-based broker said. "The situation looks as if it will get worse before it gets better."
Liffe May cocoa settled up 46 pounds at 2,237 pounds per tonne.
Volume was thin in both markets as many opted to sit on the sidelines as the risk premium was already built in, for now, and the Ivorian situation was too uncertain, dealers said.
TIGHT SUPPLIES LIFT COFFEE
Arabica coffee futures corrected higher after Tuesday's fall from the highest level in nearly 14 years at $2.6675 per lb, basis May, flirting with a new high as there is no near-term relief to the tight global arabica supplies. Origin selling continued to be light.
"The fundamental story behind it remains untouchable. You don't have any new coffee coming into Brazil," Costa said.
ICE May arabica coffee futures rose 0.50 cent to finish at $2.6160 per lb, while Liffe May robusta coffee traded down $13 to close at $2,282 per tonne as it was seen technically overbought.
While there is a shortage of high quality arabica beans, some dealers believe the market has become overvalued, as funds have added long positions.
"A lot of this rally is built on the funds, they exacerbate the situation and for the time being the line of least resistance is on the upside," a London-based broker said.
Colombian authorities said they would not hold talks with striking truckers until they lift blockades in major cities and threatened to send in police to remove trucks obstructing highways as protests dragged toward a third week. * Prices as of 1949 GMT Product Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct ICE sugar 31.54 0.72 +2.34 32.12 -1.81 ICE coffee 262.45 1.35 +0.52 241.80 8.54 ICE cocoa 3409.00 41.00 +1.22 3052.00 11.70 Liffe sugar 748.60 23.30 +3.21 777.50 -3.72 Liffe coffee 2286.00 -9.00 -0.39 2097.00 9.01 Liffe cocoa 2235.00 44.00 +2.01 2029.00 10.15 CRB index 338.20 1.91 +0.57 332.80 1.62 Crude oil 84.98 0.66 +0.78 91.38 -7.00 Euro/dlr 1.36 0.01 +0.54 1.34 1.38 * ICE sugar and ICE coffee in cents per lb, ICE cocoa, Liffe sugar and Liffe coffee in dollars per tonne. Liffe cocoa in pounds per tonne.

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